ASEFS phase 2 uses a combination of statistical and physical methods and Numerical Weather Prediction-based models. It uses the following inputs to produce aggregated regional solar generation forecasts for small-scale PV systems:

• Numerical Weather Prediction data from multiple weather data providers.
• Output measurements from selected household rooftop PV systems from PvOutput.org and Solar Analytics.
• Static data from selected systems from PvOutput.org and Solar Analytics, such as inverter size and model.
• Aggregate kilowatt capacity by installed postcode for small-scale solar systems as recorded by the Clean Energy Regulator.
• Imagery from Himawari-8 satellite.

ASEFS2 produces solar generation forecasts for the following NEM forecasting timeframes:

• Pre-dispatch (30 minute resolution, up to 40 hours ahead).
• ST PASA (30 minute resolution, seven days ahead).
• Forecasts and actuals for aggregated small-scale PV systems as produced by ASEFS2 can be found here. There are several types of estimated actuals produced by ASEFS2, described in the table below.